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Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Historical Background Elliott

Historical Background Elliott

In 1938 he published a monograph titled "The principle of the waves" (The Wave Principle). In this book were first set out the principles that became the basis of the concept, later known as the "wave theory" Elliott. The monograph was published with the support of Charles Collins, who Ralph Nelson Elliott, a founder of the theory, first presented the results of original research. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948), an accountant by profession, worked in the restaurant business and rail transport. At various times he served in various railway companies in Mexico and other Central American countries. In 1927 he retired for health reasons - the result of a serious illness which he suffered in Guatemala, after which for several years with difficulty restored health at home in California. In the long period of convalescence Elliott developed his theory of the behavior of the stock market. He apparently was under the strong influence of the Dow theory, which, it should be noted, have much in common with his own. In 1934 he wrote to Collins, who at the time was editor of the exchange bulletin "Investmentkaunsel" and said that is a subscriber newsletter, Robert Rea, and therefore familiar with the book, the latter dedicated to the Dow Theory. He also wrote that the concept of waves is "a very necessary complement to the Dow Theory." Elliott told Collins about his discovery and said he hoped that he could get a job at his firm. There followed a lively correspondence, and soon Collins, believing in the importance of opening Elliott, helped him start a career on Wall Street and even agreed in 1938 to publish his book, "The principle of the waves."
Collins also introduced Elliott with the magazine's editors, "Financial World," After that, Elliott wrote a series of twelve articles, which set out his theory. The articles were published in 1939. And in 1946, two years before his death, Elliott has written the most important of his works devoted to the "wave theory": "The law of nature - the main mystery of the universe" (Nature's Law - The Secret of the Universe). Title of work may sound a bit pretentious. The fact that Elliott thought his concept of the securities market is much more significant part of the whole - namely, the universal law of nature, controlling all aspects of human life. While it would be very interesting to consider the theory of Elliott, from this point of view, we are nonetheless forced to abandon this fundamental theme, and pay attention to those aspects of the theory of waves, which are directly related to the securities market. Trudy Elliott could be completely forgotten if not for E. Bolton, who in 1953 began to publish works on the theory of waves in an annual supplement to the magazine, "Bank Credit Enalist." Publications lasted for fourteen years - until the death of Bolton in 1967.
Even in 1960, Bolton published the book "Elliott Wave Principle - a critical analysis" (Elliott Wave Principle - A Critical Appraisal), which became the first major work devoted to the wave theory since the death of its founder. In 1967, the publication of the application continued, E. Frost, and in 1970 he wrote his last major work on the Elliott, which appeared in the "wave" application log "Bank Credit Enalist." In collaboration with Prechter Frost wrote in a 1978 book "Elliott Wave Principle" (Elliott Wave Principle, AJ Frost and R. Prechter), which today is considered the most exhaustive work on this topic. In 1980, Prechter has published the collected works of Elliot. Readers have access to the classic, long-unreleased works of Elliott. Prechter himself as one of the leading experts in the theory of waves. He publishes a monthly newsletter "The Bulletin of the Elliott Wave theory," which highlights the problem of wave concept in the securities markets, interest rates and precious metals. Issues relating to the use of wave theory to commodity futures markets are discussed in another newsletter, published by Robert Prechter also authored by D. Weiss.
Since its establishment, none of the users did not make it any notable innovations. On the contrary, all efforts have been made to ensure that the principles formulated by Elliott, looming more and more clearly. The result - evident. According to the poll "Wall Street Journal" Robert Prechter's leading "elliottovets" today was called "the guru 80" for predictions on the movement of the Dow Jones. Of course, Elliott is not very easy to use. To produce their own forecasts, it should be clearly know the weight of the rules, be aware of the guidelines and also have a specific "look" at the price chart. On the other hand, the quality of forecasts made with Elliott Wave Theory, speaks for itself.Robert Prechter way out of luck with the translation of names into Russian. Her (Prechter) translated as Prektor, Prehter and Prechter. But we understand that it is one and the same person. Alexander Elder writes about Prechter in his book "How to play and win at the stock exchange" as follows.
Another guru - Robert Prechter - declared itself in 1984. His career he has done as an authority on Elliott Wave Theory. R. H. Elliott - who live in poverty Accountant - developed it in the 30s. According to his theory, the increase in the exchange takes place in five waves - the stages, but decrease - in 3, and each stage can be divided further into smaller ones. Prechtera analytical bulletins, as is the case with its predecessors, has long had only modest success. When a game to raise the Dow passed for 1000th mark, the audience drew attention to a young analyst, claiming that it - only line on the way to 3000. The tendency to increase the strengthened with each passing month, and with it grew and glory Prechtera. In the 80s - the height of the game to increase - the glory of a narrow circle of exchange of publications and conferences for investors broke into the open television and popular magazines, which Prechter interviews. In October 1987, the idol blundered, giving the first decree to make the sale, and then - go for the purchase. When the Dow fell 500 points down, the universal admiration for him was replaced by anger and hatred. Some blamed him for the downturn, others were unhappy that the market has not reached the predicted peak in his 3000. Consultancy Prechtera came to naught, and he almost rolled it.
But this is not the case. Pretcher thrives on www.elliottwave.com (speak English can see the theory in the script and own) and in his latest book, "At The Crest of The Tidal Wawe" argues that a global perspective, the U.S. stock market is waiting for falling below the level 1000 already in 2003. But who believed him when he predicted the bull market? But no one predicted the emergence of NASDAQ, and all the theories are built on good old Dow. Who now remembers hits the 30s. Railroads, steel concerns are different - whose shares are snapped up like hot cakes? Microsoft is not included in the Dow! and feels good. And already on the way genetic engineering and fuzzy logic. If the Dow and the fall of 1000, America will not die. Maybe - there will be such - GENIN index. But Buffett and his conservatism on Dow loses. Humanity is moving forward.

Marking waves

Marking waves


All waves can be labeled according to their relative size or extent. Elliot distinguished nine degrees of waves, from the smallest to the time card to the biggest waves he could see on the then existing data. He chose the names listed below to label these degrees, from largest to smallest:(Grand Supercycle) Chief Supercycle(Supercycle) Supercycle(Cycle) Cycle(Primary) Primary cycle(Intermediate) Intermediate,(Minor) Minor cycle(Minute) Minute(Minuette) Second,(Subminuette) Subsekunda.
It is important to understand that definitions are specifically identifiable degrees of waves. For example, the definition refers to an increase in the U.S. stock market since 1932, we are talking about this as a supercycle of subdivision as follows:1932-1937 - the first wave of the degree of the cycle,1937-1942 - the second wave of the degree of the cycle,1942-1966 - the third wave of the degree of the cycle,1966-1974 - the fourth wave of Cycle degree,1974-19? - The fifth wave of Cycle degree.Cycle waves subdivide into Primary waves that subdivide into Intermediate waves that in turn are divided into younger and more junior waves. Using these figures or letters, the commentator can identify precisely the position of full-wave progression in the market, just as in longitude and latitude determines geographic position. To say, "The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at minute wave v A secondary wave 1 of Intermediate wave (3) of the primary wave [5] of wave Cycle Supercycle wave I (V) from the current chief supercycle" must be able to identify certain points of the progression of the market chronology. When indexing the waves there is a number and letter scheme, which recommends a marked degree of progression of waves in the stock market:
Marking ElliottWave power ----------- ---------- Waves on trend waves against the trendSupercycle ------------------ (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V )---------------- - (A) (B) (C)Cycle ----------------------------- I II III IV V --------------- ---------- ABCPrimary ------------------------[ 1] [2] [3] [4] [5 ]---------- ---------[ A] [B] [C]Intermediate --------------------- (1) (2) (3) (4) (5 )------------- --- (a) (b) (c)Minor --------------------------------- 1 2 3 4 5 ----------- --------------- ABCMinute ------------------------------- i ii iii iv v ------------- --------------- abcMinuette January 2 3 4 5 a b cThe above marking the closest notation proposed by Elliott, and is a traditional or classical, but the list proposed below is more properly used characters:
Marking PretcheraWave power ----------- ---------- Waves on trend waves against the trendGrand Supercycle ---------- [I] [II] [III] [IV] [V ]------------------ [A] [B ] [C]Supercycle ------------------ (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V )---------------- --- (A) (B) (C)Cycle ---------------------------- I II III IV V ---------------- ------------ ABCPrimary ------------------------- I II III IV V ------------------- ---------- ABCIntermediate ----------------- [1] [2] [3] [4] [5 ]----------------- ------[ a] [b] [c]Minor ------------------------- (1) (2) (3) (4) (5 )--------- --------------( a) (b) (c)Minute ------------------------------ January 2 3 4 5 -------------- ----------------- abcMinuette ---------------------------- January 2 3 4 5 ---------------- --------------- abcThe most desirable form for a scientist - usually something like 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, etc., with subscripts denoting degree, but it is - a nightmare to read such notations on the map. The proposed labeling provides quick visual orientation and perception of information. Maps can also use color as an effective tool to identify the degree.
In the terminology suggested by Elliott, the term "cycle" is used as a name denoting a degree of wave and does not imply a cycle in the typical sense. The same thing can be said about the term "primary", which in the past been used freely by theorists in phrases such as "primary swing" or "primary market in which there is a tendency to raise rates." Certain terminology has no effect on the identification of relative degrees, and the authors do not have nothing against editing proposed labeling waves, although we found it most convenient notation waves with figures or letters index. Precise identification of the wave degrees in the "current time" - one of the most difficult moments of the wave principle. Especially in the beginning of the "new wave", the most difficult to decide what degree of wave forms, and to identify its uppercase smaller subdivisions. The main reason is that the wave combinations are not tied strictly to the time spent on the wave passing certain points. Wave-dependent form, which is a function of price and time. Forms are defined by the size and relative position of components, that is located next to the waves. Relativity - one of the provisions of the Wave Principle, which makes the interpretation of real events smart Equilibre. Another provision of the Wave Principle - the variability of forms will be considered later.
Each wave contains one of two functions: the deployment of a plot or a reaction. That is, the wave may promote or further wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. Wave function is defined relative direction. Active or pulse wave trend - every wave, which moves in the same direction as the wave of a greater degree of which it is. Correctional or reactionary wave, or wave against the trend - every wave, which moves in the opposite direction of the waves of one degree more, of which it is. Active waves labeled odd numbers and symbols. Reaction waves marked with even numbers and symbols. All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode. If all the waves would be active and distributed in the motor way, they would not have any need for their differences with the reactionary waves. Indeed, the most active of waves are divided into five waves. However, since then it will be seen as more active waves develop in corrective mode, that is, they are divided into three waves or variety. A detailed knowledge of the design model, you need to before that would see the difference between active and motor function in the manner in this model remains unclear.

FIBOHACHCHI

SUMMATSIOHHAYA POSLEDOVATELHOST FIBOHACHCHI


Release your imagination in free flight. Think of the universe, the constellations of our galaxy. Think of the beauty and form of various natural wonders of the oceans, trees, flowers, all plants, animals and even microorganisms in the air we breathe. Happavte his idea further, to the man's achievements in areas such as science, theory of nuclear medicine, radio and television. You may be surprised to learn that all of these sites lies something in common - summation Fibonacci sequence. In tpinadtsatom century Thomas Aquinas sfopmulipoval one of the basic principle is aesthetics - human feelings ppiyatny objects having ppopoptsiyami The correct. He referred to the relationship between kpasotoy of normal and mathematics, quite often you can koto.puyu "izmepit" and find a substantiated. In the instincts of man lies on the positive response of geometpicheskie The correct shape, as in the ambient substantiated, and in pukotvopnyh objects such as ppoizvedeniya painting. St. Thomas Aquinas referred to the same principle is that otkpyl Fibonacci.Mathematician Fibonacci lived in the twelfth century (1175g.). He was one of the most famous scientists of his TIME OF. Spedi his greatest achievements - the introduction of apabskih digit string instead pimskih. He otkpyl summation Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ...
This mathematical sequence occurs when, starting with 1, 1, the next number is obtained by adding two ppedyduschih. Ho is why this sequence is so important?This sequence is asymptotically (ppiblizhayas slower and slower) to stpemitsya SOME constant ratio. However, this ratio ippatsionalno, that is, shall submit a number with infinite decimal digit sequence neppedskazuemoy dpobnoy in part. It is impossible to accurately vypazit. If any member of the Fibonacci sequence in an Area ppedshestvuyuschy him (eg, 13:8), inferences would be the value, which fluctuates around the value ippatsionalnogo 1.61803398875 ... and then ppevoshodyaschaya chepez paz, it is not reaching it. Ho zatpativ even at this eternity, it is impossible to know exactly sotnoshenie to the last decimal digit. Kpatkosti padi, we ppivodit it as 1.618.
Specific names of this relationship began to give more, before Luca Pacioli (spednevekovy mathematician) called it the Divine ppopoptsiey. Spedi it is of Contemporary names such as the Golden Mean, Golden Ratio and s.pedney veptyaschihsya kvadpatov. Keplep described this relationship as "one of sokpovisch geometpii." In algebpe obscheppinyato his designation letter gpecheskoy phi (P = 1.618).
The asymptotic behavior of the sequence, damped oscillations about its relationship ippatsionalnogo of F may be more understandable if we show the relationship of several members pe.pvyy sequence. In this example, We present the relationship vto.poy One family member to, tpetego to vto.poy, fourth-to tpetemu, and so on:1:1 = 1.0000, down from 0.6180 on financial2:1 = 2.0000, which on more financial 0.38203-2 = 1.5000, down from 0.1180 on financial5:3 = 1.6667, phi is greater at 0.04868:5 = 1.6000, down from 0.0180 on financialBy mepe our ppodvizheniya summation of the Fibonacci sequence, each new member will share the following with more and more unattainable APPROACH TO F.Below we will see that some numbers from the summation of the Fibonacci sequence can be seen in the movements of prices tovapy. Fluctuations in the value ratio of about 1.618 to a greater or lesser value, we first discovered in the wave theory is Elliott, where they describe the country-specific regulations alternation. Subconsciously seeking divine ppopoptsiyu: it is necessary for its udovletvopeniya potpebnosti in komfopte.
VARIATIONS division of any member of the Fibonacci sequence by following it turns pposto reversed to the value of 1.618 (1: 1.618). But it's also very unusual, even remarkable phenomenon. Since pepvonachalnoe ratio - an endless dpob, this ratio should be no end.D.pugoy important fact is that any number of the Fibonacci kvadpat paven The numbers in the sequence modeled from it, multiplied by the number coming after him, plus or minus.25 = (3 x 8) + 128 = (5 x 13) - 1213 = (8 x 21) + 1
Plus and minus chepeduyutsya constantly. This is another manifestation of the wave theory is an integral part of the Elliott-called country-specific regulations alternation. It states that the complex wave koppektivnye chepeduyutsya with pposto, strong pulse wave with weak koppektivnymi waves, and so on.
DIVINE PROPORTIONS IN NATURE
It's amazing how permanent can be computed using VARIATIONS Fibonacci sequence, and as its members appear in large numbers of combinations. However, it is no exaggeration to say that it is not just playing with numbers, but the most important mathematical expression of the natural phenomena of the ever open. Ppivodimye following examples show some interesting applications of this mathematical sequence.
Pyramid of GizaMany have tried to unravel the secrets of the pyramids at Giza. Unlike other Egyptian pyramids is not the tomb, and an insoluble puzzle skopee of numerical combinations. Remarkable izobpetatelnost, skill, time and labor aphitektopov pyramid, they used the symbol of eternal DURING the construction to indicate the critical importance of the message that they wanted to pass on to future generations. Their era was a pre-literate, doieroglificheskoy and characters were the only way to record findings. The key to the geometric and mathematical secret of the pyramids at Giza, for so long a mystery to mankind the former, in fact, was handed over to the temple priests to Herodotus, informing him that the pyramid is constructed so that the area of ​​each of its faces is equal to the square of its height.Tpeugolnika area: 356 x 440 / 2 = 78 320Kvadpata area: 280 x 280 = 78 400The length of the verge of the pyramids at Giza is 783.3 feet (238.7 m), height of the pyramid - 484.4 feet (147.6 m). The length of granite, divided by the height, leads to the relation F = 1.618. The height of 484.4 feet corresponds to 5813 inches (05.08.13) - is the number of the Fibonacci sequence. These interesting observations suggest that the construction of the pyramid is based on the ratio F = 1.618. Modern scholars tend to interpret that the ancient Egyptians built it with a single purpose - to convey the knowledge that they wanted to preserve for future generations. Intensive studies of the pyramids at Giza have shown how extensive were the days of knowledge in mathematics and astrology. All internal and external proportions of the pyramid the number of 1.618 has a central role.
Pyramids in MexicoNot only the Egyptian pipamidy postpoeny in accordance with sovepshenno ppopoptsiyami golden section, the same phenomenon were discovered and the Mexican pipamid. There is the idea that the Egyptian and Mexican pipamidy were built approximately at a common ppoishozhdeniya Quaternary people. On transverse section pipamidy visible shape, similar to ladder. One family in yapuse 16 steps, 42 steps in vto.poy and tpetem - 68 degrees. These numbers are based on the Fibonacci ratio in the following way:16 x 1.618 = 2616 + 26 = 4226 x 1.618 = 4242 + 26 = 68The number of F = 1.618 embedded in Mexican ppopoptsiyah pipamidy. (Source: Mysteries of the Mexican Pyramids, by Peter Thomkins / Pitep Tomkins, "The Mysteries of the Mexican pipamid" / (New York: Harper & Row, 1976) p. 246, 247.)
PlantsD.pugoy manifestation of the Fibonacci numbers is observed in the number of sinuses on the stem in Flowers & Plants Quaternary his posta. The ideal case can be seen in the stems and flowers sneezewort'a. Each new branch of ppopastaet sinuses and gives rise to d.puguyu branches. If passmotpet together stapye and new branches, in each plane HORIZONTAL obnapuzhivaetsya Fibonacci number. (Source: The Divine Proportion, by HE Huntley / Huntley J. Ye, "Divine ppopoptsiya" / (New York: Dover, 1970) p. 163.). Golden number bposayutsya again in the eye when we study the inflorescence of Compositae plants:Ipis - 3 petalsPpimula - 5 petalsAmbpoziya artemisiifolia - 13 petalsHivyanik ordinary -34 lobeAstpa - 55 and 89 petalsLocation and number of flowers at the head of a ppedstavitelya Compositae - ppekpasny the example of gold numbers, found in substantiated. We are looking for laws that operated in kotopye pposhlom and hence, possibly all, ppodolzhat act in the future. In the face of Fibonacci ratios, we seem to have found such a law.

General Provisions

General Provisions


Теория Эллиота


(1) (3) (5) (A) (C) - wave pulse.(2) (4) (B) - corrective waves.Once completed growth, consisting of five waves, starting three wave correction (A) (B) (C). Regardless of the degree will always be a tendency to develop on the basic 8-wave cycle. Waves can break (3 or 5). This breakdown depends on the direction of greater waves of which it is. Thus, the wave (1) (3) (5) are divided into 5 waves each, as a wave of I -. Wave (2) (4) are divided into three waves lesser extent, since the two waves going against the trend. Wave (A) (B) (B) make a corrective wave II more.(A) (C) - are divided into 5 waves, so as coincide with the direction of the upper trend II. (B) - from the three waves, as going against the trend II.
The complete cycle of the market consists of 8 waves of 5 waves of growth and 3-wave decline in a bull market, or vice versa: 5 wave decline and 3 waves of growth in the bear.
Correction is always composed of three waves.
Triangles are usually formed on the fourth wave (this model is always preceded by the last wave). The triangle may also be a corrective wave.
Every wave is part of a long and divided into shorter ones.
The mathematical basis of the theory of Elliott wave patterns is the Fibonacci sequence.
The number of waves forming the trend coincides with the Fibonacci numbers.
Fibonacci coefficients and based on them, the ratio of the correction used to determine the price targets.
The main aspects of the theory of Elliott wave patterns are (in order of importance): the waveform, the ratio of the waves and time.
In Elliott wave theory much attention is paid to individual signs each of the waves. Especially this issue in detail in the book Prehtera ("Elliott Wave Principle. The key to market behavior").
Basic principles of Elliott wave theory to give good results in market Forex.