The structure of the tactics

The structure of the tactics
What is a tactic, any trade? Let's try it "dissect" consider "the inside". Any trade tactics, put simply, is the goal (task) and the list of steps that should lead to achieving that very goal. Actions, of course - a transaction, opening - closing positions. But with a purpose - often the problem. When you talk, even with experienced traders, discuss tactics on the question - what is the goal, give strange answers, but often - there is no answer at all. What - the flight to nowhere. Trying to find out more deeply and begin to understand - most of the traders' trades, already resigned to a complete loss of money, but eager as long as possible to prolong their stay in the market. On this is superimposed on the big hope for good luck, that will suddenly "catch" the big move and "take" a lot - a lot of money. That such is, the goal - trade for trade.
Remember me narrated in the beginning of the article, an anecdote about an old beekeeper? So, if you think that is defining the purpose, and everything goes "like clockwork" are wrong. All this is not so important, but still - still, I advise you to put in the development of tactics, what - what concrete and achievable goals. And, if you set a task to double the deposit during the year, do not dream that suddenly get a thousand to one million. This is a bad idea.
Will again have to digress a bit and move to a higher level, the level of strategies. They talk about trading strategies, money management strategies, etc. All, at first glance, confusing. In fact we are dealing with the usual dolls. At the highest level of strategy to your life purpose, as it were destiny. And most of the "can not tear off a sight from the road to see what awaits him at the end of the path." Just roll on the track. This core strategy includes a host of other, short - and long-term, aimed at a variety of your life. We shall speak here only about the financial strategies and property. These strategies, their "edge" should be directed solely at you own. You can not break the balance. Rest assured, if you succeed, your family will also be good. If you're wasting your strength and energy to help others - will find a lot of difficulties along the way (who takes the path of the righteous so be prepared for severe stress).
Any strategy other than goals (strategic), includes a set of tactics to achieve the goal, and perhaps strategies for small-scale (or short). All of them are subordinate and serve as a primary objective. Here is an example of such a strategy (much simplified):
The aim - to achieve financial independence and quality of lifeTime - 5 years.Possible strategies for Level 2:Stop working for someone - something only for themselves.Find and implement a business idea, purpose - income of $ 500 per monthAllocate capital in the financial markets and create at least three stores trading fishing accessories. Reach a common state of at least 300 thousand dollars - 4 years.
Rob a bankTo commit a misdemeanor, stay in prison 2 years (implementation, training, recruitment)Write a criminal power structure to get weapons, vehicles, communications equipment (hereinafter referred to would not seem to get specific guidance)Good marriage (to marry).Do fitness, breast augmentation (buttocks and hamstrings), etc., (hereinafter also will not be boring, come up with themselves)Who - that giggled in the back row? Tell me honestly, you ever engaged in planning your life? Not dreams, but specific planning? So then - here, and do not giggle, "a country of dreamers ..."Any businessman will confirm, that to make money - the simple task of three, facing him. Much harder to maintain and increase money. If you do not have from the outset clear and concrete strategic goals, the money will just go away from you, like water through your fingers, no matter how much you've earned.
Returning to the strategy that I described as "allocate capital to the financial markets." That this strategy is usually called - a strategy for managing capital, and that quite a few books devoted to the various authors. The main idea of ​​all these works is that, first, "you can not put all your eggs in one basket", and secondly, as accurately as possible to assess the risks of various investments and provide compensation in advance of possible losses in order to prevent loss of capital.Of course, the issues of capital management arise when this is the capital already is. And if the "soul of" a couple thousand dollars, what to do?
But the plan - that their activities can be. Yes, the first step - a very difficult and risky. We'll have to put all of these and a little money to make the primary capital. Or, indeed, to realize what - it's business idea and a couple of years spent on "putting together" of capital. To "jump" out of the rut should spend some effort, and there is a risk to jump to the wrong that had planned, but quite another. Well, so made our world.Actually all of my mail, the entire series of articles focused on this particular strategy - to help beginners successfully "jump out of a rut," to help solve complex problem - the creation of primary capital in the forex market from a relatively small amount of money. Next - no longer my problem. Will understand.
Let us return to the tactics of trade. As is already clear set of different tactics, united (strategic) goal, and forms a strategy. For example, the above - make money from a relatively small initial capital. It uses, as a rule, not a tactic, but a few. Changing market, changing the deposit, change yourself, all this leads to the need to change tactics and trade.Any tactic, as mentioned above, is a set of goals and activities to achieve goals. An important requirement - a tactic to be repeated and sustained, that is, lead to approximately equal results in repetition. Agree, there is no benefit from the tactics of showing good results with historical data, but very different - in real time. Trading strategy should be described in the form of formalized rules that cover all situations that may arise during trading. The description must necessarily be included the following:
- Exchange-traded- The value of capital employed (part)- The conditions of open positions- Terms of increasing the open positions (if used)- The conditions of the closing of open positions- Protective StopLoss (turn at the foot)- Other ways to hedge?- Planned profit- The conditions of closing the position (if not achieved StopLoss or Take Profit)- Other features
Be sure to define the scope of a particular trading strategy. For example - if applicable flat, with the express trend, with any nature of the market in order to save a deposit for an aggressive trade, etc.To assess the effectiveness of a CT using the following parameters:
The average profit for the control period;
The allowable number of stop - Lossow, following a row (the maximum length of "strips" Damages ");
Often, as a basic parameter using the term "expectation" tactics. What it means (simplified)? Suppose TT involves 10 transactions to profit by 100 points in 7 cases, and the magnitude of losses 110 points - in 3 cases. Then the mat. Waiting tactics calculated as follows: MO = (100 * 7 - 110 * 3) / 10 = 37. If less than 0 MO tactics - of course, with this tactic you will inevitably lose money.
That's when I say the mailing list, in letters - look for, develop, test your tactics, and I mean that you should appear in the form of formalized rules clear your trading tactics as above for all occasions (the market). Only when you create them and ottestiruete long enough to ensure their efficiency and reliability - only then can we talk about the beginning of serious professional work. What is difficult? And you thought - opened a few minutes, "caught" a dozen - another point and rest? No, that will not work, have to work hard, think about it.
Emphasize the importance, in my opinion, the requirement: Your tactics should not be in the mind, not in dreams, not even on the hard drive, and recorded (printed) on paper. I will not explain why, just - take for granted. For you, it should become law, the Constitution, nor in any way deviate from its rules, push yourself to such impulses (the cause of many failures in this departure from the tactics of the original trading plan). Man is weak, lazy, greedy, gripped by fear (the person, of course, great, wonderful, generous, kind, has the wisdom and the will but not right now on this side of the coin), and you have to work at the markets to keep yourself in the hands of iron self-discipline, although it is - very difficult. And, do not adjust it (tactics), everyday, let it work out "a planned series of" vanity detrimental when dealing with money.
As you know, the dragons do not exist. This statement may satisfy a primitive mind only a simpleton, but by no means a scholar, ... ... there are three types of dragons: null, imaginary and negative. All of them were said to exist, but each type - on their own special style. Imaginary dragons and zero, called in professional language and mnimokonami nulkonami do not exist much less interesting way than negative. "

opening, maintaining, and closing positions

Rules for opening, maintaining, and closing positions.

Rules for open positions
1) Open up the position only if there is one primary and at least one confirming signal.2) When you open a required advance, create and write down on paper:- The price at which you are willing to close for a profit;- The price at which you will close upon receipt of damages;- Estimated time during which you are willing to maintain an open position. 3) Carefully and for a short time to open against the trend.4) Be careful for a short time to open in the absence of a specific trend (in sideways).
The rules of carry and the partial closure of the estimated time
1) Maintain the position only if the analysis confirms the earlier findings.
2) Partially closed:- Upon payment of losses over;- If the price reached a settlement mark for profit.
3) Look for:- If lower than the estimated damages;- If the price stays at the same level;- If the price has not reached the estimated mark for profit.
Rules unwinding
Close position in any event (subject to the above described features of work):- After the estimated time;- If estimated earnings;- Upon payment of damages;- When you reach the maximum profit.
Opening and closing a position is shooting at a moving target. Get exactly the bull's-eye (selected price) is difficult. Be prepared to bargain at a price close to the "apple."
Slightly on the averaging
Averaging is a strategy work, in which a trader produces the same type of surgery to perfect before (a long position or short selling in) on an even more affordable price.The main disadvantage of averaging is that you do not know in advance as to what the price will go against you, marketplace. Along with it every time averaging required to make additional mortgage funds, which increases the risk of your position. Most beginners make the traditional error - in the pursuit of high profits "overload" your account, relying on all available funds.
For example:You bought $ 100,000 against the franc at the rate of 1.5500, expecting to sell at a price above 1.5510 and earn 10 pips (15 510 - 15500). But the price in a short period of time has gone down and was - 1.5480, thus you have suffered a loss of 20 points (15 480 - 15500).You decide to buy another $ 100,000 for this course franc 1.5480, expecting to sell now $ 200,000 at a price of 1.5495 and earn the same 10 points of profit (15 495 - 15500 + 15 495 - 15 480). Thus you have made an average of two positions at the average rate 1.5490 ((15500 + 15480) / 2) and you no longer need to wait for the price increase to 1.5510.
Among traders goes a joke that people have resorted to averaging the three tendencies: the rich merchants, traders stupid, stupid rich traders. Remember that every joke - only to share the joke.
Finally - one of the interesting tactical developments, which gives good results on intraday intervals Forex. Every day around 9:00 Moscow time, on the basis of a mathematical model that includes the testimony and the Elliott Wave oscillator Stoch, RSI and M ACD), calculated the corridors of price changes for each of six exchange rates: EUR / USD, USD / CHF, GBP / USD , USD / JPY, EUR / CHF, EUR / GBP.
In this case calculated the maximum and minimum values ​​of these currencies for the period of construction of four bars of your operating range. Results in two corridors - Corridor for High values ​​and the values ​​of the corridor to Low. At the time the 300 minutes will be given a forecast for the period from 9:00 am to 5:00 am the day of the next day, and 60 minute range - respectively from 9:00 to 13:00 the day. The calculated levels of High and Low are not the levels of resistance and support in its purest form. The first forecast is used as a preliminary, and the second, shorter in time, you need to enter the market or out of it. The probability of coincidence of these forecasts with the actual movements of prices in practice is about 82%. Where:
1. The course chosen currency should fall into the corridor as High, and in the corridor Low, at least once (the method does not predict re-return rates in the corridor, in which she had visited once over a selected time and came out of it).
2. Likely that the value of High will be close to the level of «High average", and the value will be close to the Low level «Low average." However, perhaps a small price crossing the level of «High minimum value" or border «Low maximum value."
3. The probability that the rate will be much higher than the «High maximum" or «Low minimum value is low and is only 18%. If the exchange rate has crossed one of these limits in at least two consecutive bars (their closing prices), then this is evidence of fundamental change in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, depending on the position you occupy in the market place stop-loss level «Low minimum value" or «High maximum value." In this case, the probability of triggering the command stop - is only 18%, but the volatility of the market rarely beats a stop - and usually save you from significant losses.

exiting the market

Part 1. The importance of OThe result of all trades depends on the way out. If the input has been good, and the output is bad, then trade is likely to bring loss. At the same time, even if unsuccessful entrance, but well-staged by the foot can make a profit. That's outputs, not inputs, determine the impact of trade. This conclusion is easily proved. Take any strategy for the inputs and outputs to experiment with. You will quickly discover that the results can vary considerably even for very small changes in the parameters of output. In fact, often difficult to tell whether the input is good - because of the fact that the results depend heavily on the outputs. Due to poor yields good entry may seem unfortunate, and, conversely, a good yield can give us a bad input as good.
When testing the effectiveness of methods of entry are well out of the first trades just after a certain number of bars. If you do something more complicated, very soon you will find that actually testing their outputs rather than inputs. If you change the terms of the outputs when you try to work out the strategy for entry, then the results will vary so much that it will be impossible to draw any reliable conclusions about the effectiveness of entry strategies. In combination with the right exit strategy for almost any input would look great. In combination with poor yield, the same entry strategy will look awful.
The purpose of entry is the initiation of the trade in the right direction. To test the effectiveness of inputs can be simply measured in what percentage of cases initiated trades in the right direction. For example, input "A", which has 60% of profitable trades after 5 days is better than the input "B", with only 45% of profitable trades after 5 days.
Do not make conclusions about the risk or profitability in choosing the best entry. What if input "A" causes damage, and the input "B" - profit? Remains whether the input "A" is better? The answer - "Yes" because the purpose of entry is not profitable, and the initiation of the trade in the right direction. After that, everything else depends on the way out. Input "B" was just lucky to make more money for a specific release date, we have chosen. We can easily change our way out and find that the input "A" will provide higher returns than "B", as he initiates a trade in the right direction more often. In order to maximize profits is necessary to combine the correct input with the correct output.
Part 2. The yield based on Money Management

Probably the simplest and at the same time the most important is the output based on Money Management, the classic "stop-loss". This is a way out. Which protects the commercial capital, and prevents destruction.
Trading without stop loss - this is a sure road to bankruptcy. A well-known trader and author Victor Niederhoffer (Victor Niederhoffer) has lost tens of millions of dollars of money yet, when brought by his foundation to zero (and even owes something about $ 20 million on top). This is not surprising. The inevitability of this outcome was a foregone conclusion years ago, when Niederhoffer wrote:
"I never use the foot. The combination of the various outputs provides a significant advantage to me ..." Victor Niederhoffer, "The Education of a Speculator",
Collapse Niderhofera no surprise to professionals. Discussed only how much time it will take its road to ruin. In its favor include the fact that he stayed lolshe than most anticipated. Paranoia Niderhofera about stop-loss is not uncommon among beginners, but very rare among adult professionals. The main priority is to protect the trade of merchant capital from ruin - everything else in relation to this is secondary.
Check carefully as we have postulated that goal. We did not say that our goal is to eliminate or reduce the risk of loss. Reasonable losses are part of the sales process. Good traders make losses as a fee for participation in the business. In fact, I have noticed that good traders are probably more losing trades than bad ones. The critical factor is the size of acceptable losses. Catastrophic losses must be eliminated at all costs and damages are easily eliminated by the steady performance of a simple stop-loss.
Niederhoffer mistakenly thought he was so good trader, which can reject the basic rule of commerce and not to use stop-loss. The truth is that a good trader is in fact more in need of stop loss, than a bad trader. Bad trader collapses quickly, regardless of whether it uses stop-loss or not, while a good trader survives and thrives. The longer and better is your trade, the greater the chance of potentially catastrophic turn of events.
Stop-loss brings a trader to a predetermined point loss that the trader is ready to accept and exit losing trades without too much grief. A trader uses stop-loss, knows of his starting units that he can trade only a limited space to move against his position, and after that it limits its damages from the release of the trade in accordance with its plan. It gives him great psychological advantage. The presence of a pre-determined fixed point of exit from the trade, which brings a loss, largely eliminates the stress associated with finding in an unprofitable trade. The trader has placed your stop-loss, he knows exactly where he will be forced to withdraw and thereby eliminates the unpleasant emotions associated with the observation of increasing losses from day to day.
This is the psychological advantage of stop-loss also helps the trader in front of the trade. Suppose the system offers us enter into a certain market tomorrow and we have an unknown and unlimited potential for loss. No sensible trader would not want to enter into such a transaction. However, if we have a pre-determined stop loss and know exactly what will happen in the worst case, psychologically much residence to receive the signal system to act and enter into a deal. We know in advance and prepared for the worst case scenario and determine how much risk is acceptable to us. This knowledge gives us confidence when entering the trade and psychologically prepares to accept the losses if they occur. Of course, the stop-loss orders do not always accurately determine the amount of losses in the worst scenario, since the market opened with a break at times against the position and causes great losses than expected. However, in most cases, the stop-loss reasonably determines the maximum amount of damages.
The easiest stop-loss - it's feet, as measured by changes in fixed prices compared with the moment of entering a trade. This option is easy to use foot and it is in most trading programs, allowing it to include in the system. At the same time, possibly as a proper and improper use of its systems.
Improper use is that first you intellectually figure out how much capital you can lose on one trade and then place a stop loss in accordance with the given number. Unfortunately, the market is not commensurate the size of their movement against your position with the amount of money you are willing to lose.
The correct way of placing stop-loss is the use of market characteristics and statistics of testing the system to determine its placement. For example, a fixed stop-loss should not be placed too close to the market, since the random market fluctuations can cause a premature exit from the trade. At the same time stop should not be placed too far from the market because in this case, the amount of damages may be more than chtem necessary. Our experience shows that the fixed stop loss should be placed on the study of market volatility. For example, if the average daily trading range market is $ 1,000, the fixed stop-loss orders should be placed at least $ 1,000, if not more. This size of the foot should keep an open position of the random price fluctuations at the same time carry out the function of capital savings. We emphasize again that an appropriate system testing and analysis of the results of such testing should be preceded by placement of a fixed stop-loss to ensure maximum system performance.
It is important to understand the characteristics of market volatility, which you trade and do not blindly use a fixed stop loss if the market is changing characteristics of volatility. In this case, more properly develop adaptive stop-loss, depending on the current market volatility.
Part 3. Adaptive stop-lossIn order to develop a stop-loss adaptive to the conditions of the current market volatility, you need to get away from the fixed stop-loss and explore other ways of placing a protective stop, depending on the characteristics of market volatility.
One approach is to study price movements to determine the location of the stop-loss. For example, the minimum or maximum value for the price of the last days of X can be used as a stop-loss. We call this version of "stop-loss channel" (Channel Stop). Stop-loss channel is very adaptive to current market conditions, because it varies with the trend and volatility. Channel stop-loss is removed from the prices in periods of high volatility and strong trend and close to prices in periods of low volatility and reduce the strength of a trend. The basis for this stop is an obvious logic - we know that important breakthrough highs and lows are often a signal of trend reversal. Therefore, the stop loss placed at highs or lows is justified in terms of technical analysis.
At the same time, this foot has its drawbacks. During a strong trend, it can be placed too far from a reasonable exit point. On the other hand, consolidating the market with low volatility such stop can, conversely, be too tight. In addition, the potential magnitude of losses all the time varies and depends on how far prices have gone from the entry point, which complicates the calculation of the magnitude of risk to the deal.
Another adaptive strategy is the use of significant support and resistance levels to determine the position of the stop-loss. You can use the important market patterns, such as points of reference minima or maxima to determine the placement of stop-loss. The advantage of using price and technical points to determine the position of the stop-loss is that the stop is in accordance with the logic in a place where further movement against the position will be a logical justification for closing the position.
Another way to design a stop-loss is to study the current market volatility. We can use the average trading range (Average True Range) over a period of time, or standard deviation of prices (Standard Deviation) for a period of time and multiply that value by some constant to determine how far away can be placed on our entry. One of our favorite stop-loss is simply to take the Average True Range for a certain period, multiply it by a factor at this place and away from the entrance stop-loss. To prevent accidental movement of prices recommended disposes stop at a distance of more than one value Average TrueRange from the entry point. The advantage of using a stop loss based on the Average True Range is that it is highly adaptive to current market conditions. The distance from the point of input to output will increase in periods of high market volatility and decline in priody low market volatility. In actual practice, you may find that a problem with this stop start to arise when short-term market volatility is unusually small and narrow feet can be broken at random movement. To eliminate these false positives we expect to stop as short-term market volatility (3-4 days) and long (15-20 days) and set the foot by using the values ​​of volatility, which is currently turned out great. This allows the feet to move quickly enough to prevent false alarms and stops after several unusually quiet day.
Another option is adaptive stop-loss is associated with a standard deviation (Standard Deviation) past prices as the value associated with the volatility. For example, you can expect the standard deviation for a given period, multiply the value obtained at a certain constant and put a stop to the entry point to the value obtained. The rationale for this stop is the same as that of the ATR stop loss. The aim is to ignore the random fluctuations in prices, but reduce losses when prices start to really serious movement against the position.
Adaptive stop-loss orders, based on the volatility play an important role in the management of capital. The likely amount of loss can be quickly counted up to the opening position, and we can be sure that the potential size of losses corresponds to current market conditions. For example, suppose that our system offers to place stop-loss at a distance of half a 20-day ATR from the entry point. If we take as an input market S & P 500 beginning of the 90s, the Average True Range is equal to the then $ 1,250, so the stop-loss orders should be placed at a distance of $ 1.875 from the entry point. Now suppose that the amount of capital is $ 100,000 and we want to take risks at one time 10% of the capital. Based on the volatility of the early 1990s, we'll sell five contracts, risking, thus, $ 9.375 of our capital. Now suppose that we are trading the same system in 1999. Average True Range is now the market is $ 5,600. In accordance with this stop-loss is $ 8.400 at the distance from the entry point. If we still sell the same $ 100,000 of capital with acceptable risk of 10%, then we have to buy only one contract. As you can see, the adaptive stop-loss - this is an excellent way to manage risk in a changing market volatility.
Part 4. Outputs. Are your stop-loss is too narrow or too wide?It often happens that the stop-loss or are too close and cause frequent false alarms or, conversely, too broad and result in unnecessary loss of our capital. According to the results of our research, we concluded that for most systems more advantageous to have relatively wide stop-loss.
At first glance it seems that what is already a stop-loss orders, the lower the losses. However, it looks logical conclusion is not confirmed during testing. In almost all cases, the broad stop-loss orders allow a higher percentage of profitable trades and reduce losses. Small feet look psychologically attractive, but may actually reduce system performance, as susceptible to frequent alarms caused by random movements in prices. On the other hand, big feet, too, can be psychologically attractive because they work much less and the system with wide feet typically generate a greater number of profitable trades. However, the flip side of a wide stop is that the trader occasionally suffers from relatively large losses, although not very frequent, the size of which can be perceived very hard psychologically. Is there any solution to this problem kompromisnoe?
We believe that, yes. An interesting phenomenon that we observed in our study is that it is often possible to expand the size of the stop-loss for a short period after the opening position. We believe it is possible to give the market a few days after opening a position greater freedom wider stop-loss. However, after a certain number of days of stop-loss can often be significantly reduced. For example, if we have a stop loss at $ 5,000 at the entrance to the market S & P 500 and the size of this loss we disliked?, It is possible to have a stop loss of this magnitude only the first few days after the opening position, and then narrow it to $ 2,500 for all the remaining time for the open position. The probability to go on foot a $ 5,000, thus, decreases, although the possibility remains that a significant move against your position in the first few days will force you to go on foot maximum size. The exact amount and timing of the stop to change it must be determined using computer and statistical analysis of system performance. For some trend-following trading systems, we found that you can significantly increase the profitability of using big stops in the early days of the trade, and subsequently reducing them by 50 percent or more by increasing the duration of the open position.

Trading tactics

Trading tactics


Stop costs - profit taking
This is the simplest and most common tactic - Stop Loss - Take Profit position. Its essence is that the trader is a plan that reflects the opening price, the levels of Stop Loss and Take Profit. Then open a position in this direction. Further, in accordance with the plan or arranges orders, or to track quotes, closing the position. It should be noted that the Stop Loss should be done strictly according to plan, scheduled to take a loss clearly and decisively. Since taking the same projected gains do not need to hurry, if there are reasonable grounds for believing that the price will go even further. A man is not peculiar to risk when he has at least a small profit, but he is inclined to take risks in a losing position. It is also important to act the opposite. Do not take chances when growing losses. If the price went against you, it will go up as long as the deposit does not kill. But if you close with a small profit, the price will still be a few dozen items in the same direction. But do not try to trade on extreme values, even though it is very tempting. Make sure that the price turned and began moving safely. Then open it and wait patiently, when there will be reliable reversal signals. Suppose you take a third of all traffic, but most will protect yourself against large losses.

Position with the opposite rotation (Ower)
At the same time with one command closes all open positions before the opening of positions while in the opposite direction, that is made the turn. This tactic saves time, since a warrant replaces the two. So, if you have opened for the purchase of 2 lots for $ 100,000, then you just open the 4 lots (at 400,000) for sale to expand in the position of 200,000 in the opposite direction.
Hedging positions
Hedging is about the same number of supporters, and many ardent opponents. "Hedging" refers to the protection position by opening the back. Most often it is used when the price starts to move against your position. In this case there are two options. You can close the position, taking the loss. Is it possible to open exactly the same position as it was open, but in the opposite direction. It turns out that your loss is no longer rise as income on newly opened positions compensates for any changes in prices. You have to wait for the turn to close profitable positions and wait for the profits on the opposite positions (or reduce losses to break even in the overall balance).

Opponents argue hedge their views so that these tactics have long to hold twice as many positions. A big fee for the transfer of positions quickly reduces the deposit. This is more than true popular with beginners in a deposit of $ 1000 - 2000. But out on the Forex market with serious intentions with the amount of deposit less than $ 5000-10000 undesirable. Keep in mind that opening the hedging position, you reduce risk by stopping the growth of losses. But shutting leave defenseless "the opposite half." So hedge at any time, but out of the hedge should be cautious, just getting clear signals from the movement.
When working in the hedge does not matter which of the items was discovered earlier, and someone who hedges. One of the most appropriate tactics, there may be as follows:After waiting for a good motion to close the position, directed against the movement, it does not matter at what price it was opened. A common mistake is that it is psychologically difficult to close a position far removed from the current price. This is silly, because those losses are already compensated by opposite positions.By the end of the movement, again hedged.

What is a trading system?

What is a trading system?

The trading system is an ordered set of technical and / or fundamental indicators, the simultaneous achievement of set points which gives a signal to buy or sell the trading instrument. In fact, this is a mathematical model of automatic trading decisions.The structure of the trading system
1. Time slices of quotations, on which the analysis of the market.
2. A set of indicators for each such outlet to the signal values.
3. Basic conditions for the issuance of trading signals for buying and selling an asset, for example, if the RSI has reached the hourly EUR / USD chart values ​​of 80% and goes down, and crossed quotes moving average with period 13, the signal - to sell.
4. Protective order to profit or loss - stop-loss/limit-profit warrant.
5. Rules for evaluating the effectiveness of the trading system and its correction.

Types of trading systems
There are three major types of systems that can be recommended for trading:
1. Following the trend. These systems use a simple rule, or by using a few rules to assess the dynamics of the market:whether the market moves up, down or sideways, thus determining the direction of the trend. As a rule the direction of analysis can be used trend indicators and trends filters.
2. Systems based on the breakout of the resistance or support. These systems give a signal in the direction of trend change after the break or after a lateral trend. Systems based on a breakthrough computerized least, because of the artificial definition of levels and involve the use of a subjective approach, which actually makes this type of system being solved in a personalized strategy.
3. Price band system, designed specifically to make a profit during periods when the market is in a range of prices. This type of computerized systems more, because of the greater possibility of setting mathematical formulas and automation environment for the alarm.
Many professional traders institutions, particularly market-makers have a series of systems that reflect each of these areas in order to profit from trading in the market for any of the current trend. It is important to have a suitable type of system for each state of the market, because the trend of the system leads to a constant pulling in sideways, a system based on the breakdown tend to err in corrections, in both cases leads to a significant loss of capital, and nervous overload.
There are at least two reasons for the application in the modern trading trading systems:The first - the desire to eliminate subjectivity trader when making trading decisions and avoid commonly leads to a loss of emotional impact on market players. Human nature is such that under the influence of emotions it will inevitably take a wrong decision on a speculative arena: for example, instead of closing profitable positions, it gives an additional application to buy a broker at a time when the trend is weakening. Trading system - in fact the only way to minimize the emotional stress that inevitably destroy each trader.
It has one big advantage over the subjective approach - namely, a formal representation, amenable to logical analysis for errors and the most effective moments. Thus, the player uses a trading system that has a real chance to not only improve on a certain period of their results, but also to understand why it happened, and how these positive results to maintain in the future.
The second important reason - the possibility of a trading system to use an unlimited number of parameters and prediction techniques by software implementation of the trading system. Self-guided by subjective factors, you can effectively use and analyze the most technical indicators 6.3 and the same fundamental.
The degree of accuracy of signals received from such a simplified system is low, because the currency market as any other financial market is one important feature - the non-stationarity, ie patterns identified in areas with one type of rate movement is not performed at other sites and need to have multiple additional filters to determine the nature of market movements and to identify false alarms.

Types of policies

Types of policies

Strategies are divided by time. Longer strategies are less profitable but less risky. They require less psychological stress and a greater ratio of Deposit / Margin. The converse is true for short-term strategies.
Long-term strategies - such a strategy where a trader holds a position open for several days to a month or more. This is the least risky strategy that does not require making instant decisions. Yes, and psychological stress is low. On the other hand, quite a large deposit of at least 5 to 10 times higher than Margin (the amount required to open and maintain a position).

So, if Margin equal to $ 1,000 for the work under this strategy must be from 10000. It is necessary to withstand the sudden speculative fluctuations, reaching an average of 500 - 1000 points. A second drawback of this class of strategies that must be paid for the transfer position. Such a strategy using strategic investors and speculators semi. It is most effective in the emerging trend and the least profitable at the side or sluggish trends. Requires mandatory safety net, and related work on the futures exchange options market.

Medium-term strategy is working within time limits ranging from one day to one week. It satisfies all of the above. It is perfect for beginners who can not or do not want to wait a long time. This is potentially more profitable and somewhat risky strategy, but at a ratio of Deposit / Margin of 5-10, it can be virtually risk-free.
This strategy is mainly used as semi-professional speculators. This strategy can take advantage of all the strategies work, on the one hand it can be quite long-term, on the other - a short-term.

Short-term strategy - from one hour to one day. Potentially highly profitable strategy for experienced traders. It is used by professional players who are already fairly well known and the "" market. The positive point is that by using this strategy to work, you are not putting yourself at risk of unexpected price changes and fellowship at a time when you were on the market. Negative - high indirect costs (commissions, spreads, communication services, etc.) greater risk of adverse short-term price fluctuations, requires constant concentration, and stress control during the day.

Very short strategy - the most attractive for beginners and rapidly leads to their complete collapse. Tempted by short-term fluctuations of a few points, the trader begins to "catch points" on 1-5. Several times it can be successful, he earns 20-40 points.Then there is a movement against the position of the trader and he quickly makes a loss. Since this work requires a very quick decision in a very large psychological stress, which is available only to very experienced trader, the rookie does nothing but fascination is watching how quickly it is reduced deposit.

To begin with recommended use of the medium-term strategy to gradually taking advantage of the first and the second-last strategy in sluggish or sideways. It should be noted that "it is better to do nothing than to do that - then." I mean that you can not enter into transactions only - a simple desire for action, often provoked by the long inaction. For each transaction must be a reason - a fundamental or technical.

Trading Strategy

Trading Strategy
Trading strategy determines the range of issues faced by the trader in the financial markets. These include - the choice of an asset that will be used to open position, the timing of entry and exit, the number of open positions, the amount of money involved in each position, and so on.
And what about the strategy?
Once you read this stuff, you would like to make more successful operations on Forex. How to make successful trades? Traders joke that the secret lies in a simple phrase - "buy cheap, sell expensive." When applied to financial markets, more correctly, this phrase is: "to buy expensive, more expensive to sell or to sell expensive, to buy cheaper." In order to implement these simple and clear principles, you must learn to predict the direction and magnitude of movements in exchange rates. This focused on the previous chapter.
But the main thing is not so much successful prediction as choosing the right strategy. Forecast ultimately still is probabilistic in nature. For example, one can assume that a trader with a probability of 0.75 was not mistaken in the projections. This means that an average of 100 transactions, he will hold a 75 for a profit, and 25 - with a loss. But in order to realize this requires strict adherence to the chosen trading strategy samodistsiplinirovannost, endurance.When there is no strategy, the trader earns a little more time and then is a huge loss, which absorbs all the previous gains, and then the entire deposit.
Joked that the Russian traders, there are only two strategies.
Strategy number 1: "less is better." Its essence is not to wait for opportunities for windfall profits, and, having played some reasonable amount of money to switch to another currency. Sounds simple, but in fact turns out the works and experiences. The only thing that is absolutely necessary if you follow this particular strategy - the first class information and analytical support.
Only she is able to provide timely information to make conclusions about the up or down will go a currency and time to restructure, if she pleases once again turn back or somewhere else. This strategy will not get into the top ten richest people in the world, but it will help feed and get rid of the problem of obtaining their daily bread.
If you want to get big profits, you will approach the strategy number 2: "I managed." This is a short word completely defines the essence of the most risky of all the strategies. It consists in the fact that the player comes into permanent dynamic growing (or falling, all the same), the market and holds positions as long as the market is not out of steam. Out of steam or not the player himself.There is another version of this game: got any - information which he knows may have an impact on market moves, the player enters the game.
Moreover, the time of entry, in this case is of utmost importance. Assessing the situation, the player decides to join the game for a fall (if the market goes down) or increase (respectively, if the market goes up). If at all seriously, the strategy or trading system, each generates for himself. This can not be taught. Furthermore, blindly following someone else's recommendations will lead eventually to the collapse. So the strategy you have to make yourself using the trading tactics and strategies of classification, discussed below.

Historical Background Elliott

Historical Background Elliott

In 1938 he published a monograph titled "The principle of the waves" (The Wave Principle). In this book were first set out the principles that became the basis of the concept, later known as the "wave theory" Elliott. The monograph was published with the support of Charles Collins, who Ralph Nelson Elliott, a founder of the theory, first presented the results of original research. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948), an accountant by profession, worked in the restaurant business and rail transport. At various times he served in various railway companies in Mexico and other Central American countries. In 1927 he retired for health reasons - the result of a serious illness which he suffered in Guatemala, after which for several years with difficulty restored health at home in California. In the long period of convalescence Elliott developed his theory of the behavior of the stock market. He apparently was under the strong influence of the Dow theory, which, it should be noted, have much in common with his own. In 1934 he wrote to Collins, who at the time was editor of the exchange bulletin "Investmentkaunsel" and said that is a subscriber newsletter, Robert Rea, and therefore familiar with the book, the latter dedicated to the Dow Theory. He also wrote that the concept of waves is "a very necessary complement to the Dow Theory." Elliott told Collins about his discovery and said he hoped that he could get a job at his firm. There followed a lively correspondence, and soon Collins, believing in the importance of opening Elliott, helped him start a career on Wall Street and even agreed in 1938 to publish his book, "The principle of the waves."
Collins also introduced Elliott with the magazine's editors, "Financial World," After that, Elliott wrote a series of twelve articles, which set out his theory. The articles were published in 1939. And in 1946, two years before his death, Elliott has written the most important of his works devoted to the "wave theory": "The law of nature - the main mystery of the universe" (Nature's Law - The Secret of the Universe). Title of work may sound a bit pretentious. The fact that Elliott thought his concept of the securities market is much more significant part of the whole - namely, the universal law of nature, controlling all aspects of human life. While it would be very interesting to consider the theory of Elliott, from this point of view, we are nonetheless forced to abandon this fundamental theme, and pay attention to those aspects of the theory of waves, which are directly related to the securities market. Trudy Elliott could be completely forgotten if not for E. Bolton, who in 1953 began to publish works on the theory of waves in an annual supplement to the magazine, "Bank Credit Enalist." Publications lasted for fourteen years - until the death of Bolton in 1967.
Even in 1960, Bolton published the book "Elliott Wave Principle - a critical analysis" (Elliott Wave Principle - A Critical Appraisal), which became the first major work devoted to the wave theory since the death of its founder. In 1967, the publication of the application continued, E. Frost, and in 1970 he wrote his last major work on the Elliott, which appeared in the "wave" application log "Bank Credit Enalist." In collaboration with Prechter Frost wrote in a 1978 book "Elliott Wave Principle" (Elliott Wave Principle, AJ Frost and R. Prechter), which today is considered the most exhaustive work on this topic. In 1980, Prechter has published the collected works of Elliot. Readers have access to the classic, long-unreleased works of Elliott. Prechter himself as one of the leading experts in the theory of waves. He publishes a monthly newsletter "The Bulletin of the Elliott Wave theory," which highlights the problem of wave concept in the securities markets, interest rates and precious metals. Issues relating to the use of wave theory to commodity futures markets are discussed in another newsletter, published by Robert Prechter also authored by D. Weiss.
Since its establishment, none of the users did not make it any notable innovations. On the contrary, all efforts have been made to ensure that the principles formulated by Elliott, looming more and more clearly. The result - evident. According to the poll "Wall Street Journal" Robert Prechter's leading "elliottovets" today was called "the guru 80" for predictions on the movement of the Dow Jones. Of course, Elliott is not very easy to use. To produce their own forecasts, it should be clearly know the weight of the rules, be aware of the guidelines and also have a specific "look" at the price chart. On the other hand, the quality of forecasts made with Elliott Wave Theory, speaks for itself.Robert Prechter way out of luck with the translation of names into Russian. Her (Prechter) translated as Prektor, Prehter and Prechter. But we understand that it is one and the same person. Alexander Elder writes about Prechter in his book "How to play and win at the stock exchange" as follows.
Another guru - Robert Prechter - declared itself in 1984. His career he has done as an authority on Elliott Wave Theory. R. H. Elliott - who live in poverty Accountant - developed it in the 30s. According to his theory, the increase in the exchange takes place in five waves - the stages, but decrease - in 3, and each stage can be divided further into smaller ones. Prechtera analytical bulletins, as is the case with its predecessors, has long had only modest success. When a game to raise the Dow passed for 1000th mark, the audience drew attention to a young analyst, claiming that it - only line on the way to 3000. The tendency to increase the strengthened with each passing month, and with it grew and glory Prechtera. In the 80s - the height of the game to increase - the glory of a narrow circle of exchange of publications and conferences for investors broke into the open television and popular magazines, which Prechter interviews. In October 1987, the idol blundered, giving the first decree to make the sale, and then - go for the purchase. When the Dow fell 500 points down, the universal admiration for him was replaced by anger and hatred. Some blamed him for the downturn, others were unhappy that the market has not reached the predicted peak in his 3000. Consultancy Prechtera came to naught, and he almost rolled it.
But this is not the case. Pretcher thrives on www.elliottwave.com (speak English can see the theory in the script and own) and in his latest book, "At The Crest of The Tidal Wawe" argues that a global perspective, the U.S. stock market is waiting for falling below the level 1000 already in 2003. But who believed him when he predicted the bull market? But no one predicted the emergence of NASDAQ, and all the theories are built on good old Dow. Who now remembers hits the 30s. Railroads, steel concerns are different - whose shares are snapped up like hot cakes? Microsoft is not included in the Dow! and feels good. And already on the way genetic engineering and fuzzy logic. If the Dow and the fall of 1000, America will not die. Maybe - there will be such - GENIN index. But Buffett and his conservatism on Dow loses. Humanity is moving forward.

Marking waves

Marking waves


All waves can be labeled according to their relative size or extent. Elliot distinguished nine degrees of waves, from the smallest to the time card to the biggest waves he could see on the then existing data. He chose the names listed below to label these degrees, from largest to smallest:(Grand Supercycle) Chief Supercycle(Supercycle) Supercycle(Cycle) Cycle(Primary) Primary cycle(Intermediate) Intermediate,(Minor) Minor cycle(Minute) Minute(Minuette) Second,(Subminuette) Subsekunda.
It is important to understand that definitions are specifically identifiable degrees of waves. For example, the definition refers to an increase in the U.S. stock market since 1932, we are talking about this as a supercycle of subdivision as follows:1932-1937 - the first wave of the degree of the cycle,1937-1942 - the second wave of the degree of the cycle,1942-1966 - the third wave of the degree of the cycle,1966-1974 - the fourth wave of Cycle degree,1974-19? - The fifth wave of Cycle degree.Cycle waves subdivide into Primary waves that subdivide into Intermediate waves that in turn are divided into younger and more junior waves. Using these figures or letters, the commentator can identify precisely the position of full-wave progression in the market, just as in longitude and latitude determines geographic position. To say, "The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at minute wave v A secondary wave 1 of Intermediate wave (3) of the primary wave [5] of wave Cycle Supercycle wave I (V) from the current chief supercycle" must be able to identify certain points of the progression of the market chronology. When indexing the waves there is a number and letter scheme, which recommends a marked degree of progression of waves in the stock market:
Marking ElliottWave power ----------- ---------- Waves on trend waves against the trendSupercycle ------------------ (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V )---------------- - (A) (B) (C)Cycle ----------------------------- I II III IV V --------------- ---------- ABCPrimary ------------------------[ 1] [2] [3] [4] [5 ]---------- ---------[ A] [B] [C]Intermediate --------------------- (1) (2) (3) (4) (5 )------------- --- (a) (b) (c)Minor --------------------------------- 1 2 3 4 5 ----------- --------------- ABCMinute ------------------------------- i ii iii iv v ------------- --------------- abcMinuette January 2 3 4 5 a b cThe above marking the closest notation proposed by Elliott, and is a traditional or classical, but the list proposed below is more properly used characters:
Marking PretcheraWave power ----------- ---------- Waves on trend waves against the trendGrand Supercycle ---------- [I] [II] [III] [IV] [V ]------------------ [A] [B ] [C]Supercycle ------------------ (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V )---------------- --- (A) (B) (C)Cycle ---------------------------- I II III IV V ---------------- ------------ ABCPrimary ------------------------- I II III IV V ------------------- ---------- ABCIntermediate ----------------- [1] [2] [3] [4] [5 ]----------------- ------[ a] [b] [c]Minor ------------------------- (1) (2) (3) (4) (5 )--------- --------------( a) (b) (c)Minute ------------------------------ January 2 3 4 5 -------------- ----------------- abcMinuette ---------------------------- January 2 3 4 5 ---------------- --------------- abcThe most desirable form for a scientist - usually something like 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, etc., with subscripts denoting degree, but it is - a nightmare to read such notations on the map. The proposed labeling provides quick visual orientation and perception of information. Maps can also use color as an effective tool to identify the degree.
In the terminology suggested by Elliott, the term "cycle" is used as a name denoting a degree of wave and does not imply a cycle in the typical sense. The same thing can be said about the term "primary", which in the past been used freely by theorists in phrases such as "primary swing" or "primary market in which there is a tendency to raise rates." Certain terminology has no effect on the identification of relative degrees, and the authors do not have nothing against editing proposed labeling waves, although we found it most convenient notation waves with figures or letters index. Precise identification of the wave degrees in the "current time" - one of the most difficult moments of the wave principle. Especially in the beginning of the "new wave", the most difficult to decide what degree of wave forms, and to identify its uppercase smaller subdivisions. The main reason is that the wave combinations are not tied strictly to the time spent on the wave passing certain points. Wave-dependent form, which is a function of price and time. Forms are defined by the size and relative position of components, that is located next to the waves. Relativity - one of the provisions of the Wave Principle, which makes the interpretation of real events smart Equilibre. Another provision of the Wave Principle - the variability of forms will be considered later.
Each wave contains one of two functions: the deployment of a plot or a reaction. That is, the wave may promote or further wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. Wave function is defined relative direction. Active or pulse wave trend - every wave, which moves in the same direction as the wave of a greater degree of which it is. Correctional or reactionary wave, or wave against the trend - every wave, which moves in the opposite direction of the waves of one degree more, of which it is. Active waves labeled odd numbers and symbols. Reaction waves marked with even numbers and symbols. All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode. If all the waves would be active and distributed in the motor way, they would not have any need for their differences with the reactionary waves. Indeed, the most active of waves are divided into five waves. However, since then it will be seen as more active waves develop in corrective mode, that is, they are divided into three waves or variety. A detailed knowledge of the design model, you need to before that would see the difference between active and motor function in the manner in this model remains unclear.

FIBOHACHCHI

SUMMATSIOHHAYA POSLEDOVATELHOST FIBOHACHCHI


Release your imagination in free flight. Think of the universe, the constellations of our galaxy. Think of the beauty and form of various natural wonders of the oceans, trees, flowers, all plants, animals and even microorganisms in the air we breathe. Happavte his idea further, to the man's achievements in areas such as science, theory of nuclear medicine, radio and television. You may be surprised to learn that all of these sites lies something in common - summation Fibonacci sequence. In tpinadtsatom century Thomas Aquinas sfopmulipoval one of the basic principle is aesthetics - human feelings ppiyatny objects having ppopoptsiyami The correct. He referred to the relationship between kpasotoy of normal and mathematics, quite often you can koto.puyu "izmepit" and find a substantiated. In the instincts of man lies on the positive response of geometpicheskie The correct shape, as in the ambient substantiated, and in pukotvopnyh objects such as ppoizvedeniya painting. St. Thomas Aquinas referred to the same principle is that otkpyl Fibonacci.Mathematician Fibonacci lived in the twelfth century (1175g.). He was one of the most famous scientists of his TIME OF. Spedi his greatest achievements - the introduction of apabskih digit string instead pimskih. He otkpyl summation Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ...
This mathematical sequence occurs when, starting with 1, 1, the next number is obtained by adding two ppedyduschih. Ho is why this sequence is so important?This sequence is asymptotically (ppiblizhayas slower and slower) to stpemitsya SOME constant ratio. However, this ratio ippatsionalno, that is, shall submit a number with infinite decimal digit sequence neppedskazuemoy dpobnoy in part. It is impossible to accurately vypazit. If any member of the Fibonacci sequence in an Area ppedshestvuyuschy him (eg, 13:8), inferences would be the value, which fluctuates around the value ippatsionalnogo 1.61803398875 ... and then ppevoshodyaschaya chepez paz, it is not reaching it. Ho zatpativ even at this eternity, it is impossible to know exactly sotnoshenie to the last decimal digit. Kpatkosti padi, we ppivodit it as 1.618.
Specific names of this relationship began to give more, before Luca Pacioli (spednevekovy mathematician) called it the Divine ppopoptsiey. Spedi it is of Contemporary names such as the Golden Mean, Golden Ratio and s.pedney veptyaschihsya kvadpatov. Keplep described this relationship as "one of sokpovisch geometpii." In algebpe obscheppinyato his designation letter gpecheskoy phi (P = 1.618).
The asymptotic behavior of the sequence, damped oscillations about its relationship ippatsionalnogo of F may be more understandable if we show the relationship of several members pe.pvyy sequence. In this example, We present the relationship vto.poy One family member to, tpetego to vto.poy, fourth-to tpetemu, and so on:1:1 = 1.0000, down from 0.6180 on financial2:1 = 2.0000, which on more financial 0.38203-2 = 1.5000, down from 0.1180 on financial5:3 = 1.6667, phi is greater at 0.04868:5 = 1.6000, down from 0.0180 on financialBy mepe our ppodvizheniya summation of the Fibonacci sequence, each new member will share the following with more and more unattainable APPROACH TO F.Below we will see that some numbers from the summation of the Fibonacci sequence can be seen in the movements of prices tovapy. Fluctuations in the value ratio of about 1.618 to a greater or lesser value, we first discovered in the wave theory is Elliott, where they describe the country-specific regulations alternation. Subconsciously seeking divine ppopoptsiyu: it is necessary for its udovletvopeniya potpebnosti in komfopte.
VARIATIONS division of any member of the Fibonacci sequence by following it turns pposto reversed to the value of 1.618 (1: 1.618). But it's also very unusual, even remarkable phenomenon. Since pepvonachalnoe ratio - an endless dpob, this ratio should be no end.D.pugoy important fact is that any number of the Fibonacci kvadpat paven The numbers in the sequence modeled from it, multiplied by the number coming after him, plus or minus.25 = (3 x 8) + 128 = (5 x 13) - 1213 = (8 x 21) + 1
Plus and minus chepeduyutsya constantly. This is another manifestation of the wave theory is an integral part of the Elliott-called country-specific regulations alternation. It states that the complex wave koppektivnye chepeduyutsya with pposto, strong pulse wave with weak koppektivnymi waves, and so on.
DIVINE PROPORTIONS IN NATURE
It's amazing how permanent can be computed using VARIATIONS Fibonacci sequence, and as its members appear in large numbers of combinations. However, it is no exaggeration to say that it is not just playing with numbers, but the most important mathematical expression of the natural phenomena of the ever open. Ppivodimye following examples show some interesting applications of this mathematical sequence.
Pyramid of GizaMany have tried to unravel the secrets of the pyramids at Giza. Unlike other Egyptian pyramids is not the tomb, and an insoluble puzzle skopee of numerical combinations. Remarkable izobpetatelnost, skill, time and labor aphitektopov pyramid, they used the symbol of eternal DURING the construction to indicate the critical importance of the message that they wanted to pass on to future generations. Their era was a pre-literate, doieroglificheskoy and characters were the only way to record findings. The key to the geometric and mathematical secret of the pyramids at Giza, for so long a mystery to mankind the former, in fact, was handed over to the temple priests to Herodotus, informing him that the pyramid is constructed so that the area of ​​each of its faces is equal to the square of its height.Tpeugolnika area: 356 x 440 / 2 = 78 320Kvadpata area: 280 x 280 = 78 400The length of the verge of the pyramids at Giza is 783.3 feet (238.7 m), height of the pyramid - 484.4 feet (147.6 m). The length of granite, divided by the height, leads to the relation F = 1.618. The height of 484.4 feet corresponds to 5813 inches (05.08.13) - is the number of the Fibonacci sequence. These interesting observations suggest that the construction of the pyramid is based on the ratio F = 1.618. Modern scholars tend to interpret that the ancient Egyptians built it with a single purpose - to convey the knowledge that they wanted to preserve for future generations. Intensive studies of the pyramids at Giza have shown how extensive were the days of knowledge in mathematics and astrology. All internal and external proportions of the pyramid the number of 1.618 has a central role.
Pyramids in MexicoNot only the Egyptian pipamidy postpoeny in accordance with sovepshenno ppopoptsiyami golden section, the same phenomenon were discovered and the Mexican pipamid. There is the idea that the Egyptian and Mexican pipamidy were built approximately at a common ppoishozhdeniya Quaternary people. On transverse section pipamidy visible shape, similar to ladder. One family in yapuse 16 steps, 42 steps in vto.poy and tpetem - 68 degrees. These numbers are based on the Fibonacci ratio in the following way:16 x 1.618 = 2616 + 26 = 4226 x 1.618 = 4242 + 26 = 68The number of F = 1.618 embedded in Mexican ppopoptsiyah pipamidy. (Source: Mysteries of the Mexican Pyramids, by Peter Thomkins / Pitep Tomkins, "The Mysteries of the Mexican pipamid" / (New York: Harper & Row, 1976) p. 246, 247.)
PlantsD.pugoy manifestation of the Fibonacci numbers is observed in the number of sinuses on the stem in Flowers & Plants Quaternary his posta. The ideal case can be seen in the stems and flowers sneezewort'a. Each new branch of ppopastaet sinuses and gives rise to d.puguyu branches. If passmotpet together stapye and new branches, in each plane HORIZONTAL obnapuzhivaetsya Fibonacci number. (Source: The Divine Proportion, by HE Huntley / Huntley J. Ye, "Divine ppopoptsiya" / (New York: Dover, 1970) p. 163.). Golden number bposayutsya again in the eye when we study the inflorescence of Compositae plants:Ipis - 3 petalsPpimula - 5 petalsAmbpoziya artemisiifolia - 13 petalsHivyanik ordinary -34 lobeAstpa - 55 and 89 petalsLocation and number of flowers at the head of a ppedstavitelya Compositae - ppekpasny the example of gold numbers, found in substantiated. We are looking for laws that operated in kotopye pposhlom and hence, possibly all, ppodolzhat act in the future. In the face of Fibonacci ratios, we seem to have found such a law.

General Provisions

General Provisions

(1) (3) (5) (A) (C) - wave pulse.(2) (4) (B) - corrective waves.Once completed growth, consisting of five waves, starting three wave correction (A) (B) (C). Regardless of the degree will always be a tendency to develop on the basic 8-wave cycle. Waves can break (3 or 5). This breakdown depends on the direction of greater waves of which it is. Thus, the wave (1) (3) (5) are divided into 5 waves each, as a wave of I -. Wave (2) (4) are divided into three waves lesser extent, since the two waves going against the trend. Wave (A) (B) (B) make a corrective wave II more.(A) (C) - are divided into 5 waves, so as coincide with the direction of the upper trend II. (B) - from the three waves, as going against the trend II.
The complete cycle of the market consists of 8 waves of 5 waves of growth and 3-wave decline in a bull market, or vice versa: 5 wave decline and 3 waves of growth in the bear.
Correction is always composed of three waves.
Triangles are usually formed on the fourth wave (this model is always preceded by the last wave). The triangle may also be a corrective wave.
Every wave is part of a long and divided into shorter ones.
The mathematical basis of the theory of Elliott wave patterns is the Fibonacci sequence.
The number of waves forming the trend coincides with the Fibonacci numbers.
Fibonacci coefficients and based on them, the ratio of the correction used to determine the price targets.
The main aspects of the theory of Elliott wave patterns are (in order of importance): the waveform, the ratio of the waves and time.
In Elliott wave theory much attention is paid to individual signs each of the waves. Especially this issue in detail in the book Prehtera ("Elliott Wave Principle. The key to market behavior").
Basic principles of Elliott wave theory to give good results in market Forex.

economic indicators

U.S. economic indicators
Atlanta Fed indexBusiness Activity Index Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.It represents the results of a survey of manufacturers in Atlanta for their attitudes toward the current economic situation. The numbers below the "0" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Its value is published after the 10th of each month at 09:00 EST (New York). This index has a limited impact on the market, as published after the release of an indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM index). The growing importance of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.Average hourly earningsAverage hourly wages.Expressed in terms of absolute value and as an index relative to the previous period. Is an indicator of potential inflation-related increase in labor costs. It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates increase his value could lead to an increase in the dollar. Published, usually on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) in conjunction with an indicator "Nonfarm payrolls".Average workweekThe average working week.The indicator shows the average weekly working hours during the month. Published, usually on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) in conjunction with an indicator "Nonfarm payrolls". On the market has practically no effect. Used for long-term analysis of employment in the country. It is a "good" indicator of the labor market at different stages of the economic cycle. He is considered one of the key indicators for indicators such as "Industrial production" (Industrial Production) and "Personal income" (Personal Income), the values ​​of which are published later.Beige bookEconomic survey of the U.S. Federal Reserve "badge beech."Produced twelve Federal Reserve Banks United States. The review covers the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labor market, real estate market. It has a limited impact on the market. When the market there are rumors of a possible change in interest rates, then pay attention to that part of the review, which refers to the state wage and price controls. Overview helpful in confirming the already established trend in the economy. Its value is published 8 times a year, on Wednesday, two weeks before the next meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve in the U.S. 14:00 EST (New York).Building permitsBuilding permits.The indicator shows the number of permits for new home construction. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates as well as the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These findings, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, increasing the volume of construction is improving well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. Increase in its value has a positive impact on the currency. Its value is published in the third week of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) in conjunction with an indicator "Housing starts".Business inventoriesInventories of manufactured goods, components and semi-finished products in storage.There is the following pattern: the increase in inventory for several months may indicate a stagnation in the economy. The effect of this indicator on the market is limited. However, a stable trend in its dynamics has a great impact on the market. The growth of the index has a negative impact on the dollar. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).Capacity utilisationCapacity use.Determines the extent to which the productive capacity of the economy. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. Exceeding this level causes inflation in the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of this index leads to an increase in the national currency. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (New York) in conjunction with the indicator "Industrial production" (Industrial Production).Chicago PMI indexBusiness Activity Index Managers Association in Chicago.It represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industry of Chicago. This index affects the status of production orders, the prices of manufactured products and inventory in warehouses. The numbers below the "45-50" is an indicator of a slowing economy. Behind him closely watched because it is published shortly before the business activity index of the National Association of Managers (NAPM). This index has a significant impact on the market, because it may give an idea of ​​how will an indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM). The growth of the index leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published on the last business day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).Construction spendingConstruction costs.The indicator is expressed as an index relative to the previous period and as the absolute value of costs. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates as well as the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These findings, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, increasing the volume of construction is improving well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. Increase in its value has a positive impact on the currency. Its value is published, usually on the first business day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).Consumer confidenceThe index of consumer confidence.This review is an attempt to measure the optimism of consumers. The index is calculated since 1967. First, it was equal to "100". It has a limited impact on the market because it can not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used to predict trends in employment and the general state of the economy. The growth of the index is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published after the 20th day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).Consumer creditConsumer credit.Reflects the amount of Americans of credit through credit cards, personal loans and hire purchase. It is an indicator of consumer demand. The importance of this indicator suggests that consumers are not afraid to "get into debt" to meet their material needs. However, the figures are often revised and have significant seasonal variations. For example, the value of consumer credit is growing in anticipation of Christmas and New Year. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of the index is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published around the 7th of each month at 15:00 EST (New York).Consumer price index (CPI)Consumer Price Index.Determines the change in the level of retail prices for the "basket" of goods and services. The consumer price index is considered more reliable if it does not take into account food and energy industries. In calculating the index takes into account the price of imported goods and services. Consumer Price Index is the main indicator of inflation in the country. This index is analyzed together with the measure "PPI" (Producer Price Index). If the economy develops in normal conditions, the increase in CPI and PPI can lead to an increase in key interest rates in the country. This, in turn, leads to an increase in the dollar, as it increases the attractiveness of investing in currencies with higher interest rates. Its value is published in the middle of each month (soon after the index PPI) at 08:30 EST (New York).Current account (Balance of payments)The balance of payments.Is the ratio between the amount of payments received from abroad, and the amount of payments going abroad. If arriving in the country exceed payments payments to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (surplus), if the opposite - that passive (negative balance). The surplus (or decrease in the deficit) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market. Its value is published every quarter, in the middle of the month of publication of 10:00 EST (New York).Durable goods ordersOrders for durable goods.For durable goods, those goods with a lifetime of more than three years. These include cars, furniture, etc. In order to highlight the variability inherent in the military and transportation orders, the indicator of release rates, which do not include orders for the defense industry (Durable goods orders excluding defence) and transport orders (Durable goods orders excluding transportation). This indicator is important for the market because it gives an idea about the confidence of consumers of these products in the current economic situation. Since durable goods are quite expensive, the increase in the number of orders for these shows consumers' willingness to spend on them their money. Thus, the growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to an increase in the national currency. Its value is published in the fourth week of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).Employment cost indexEmployment cost index.It includes wages and unemployment benefits. It can serve as an indicator of the presence of inflationary pressures in the economy. Employment cost index is one of those indicators for which closely followed the Federal Reserve in conducting its monetary policy (and that says a lot). With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates increase its value leads to an increase in the dollar. Used for medium-and long-term forecasts. Its value is published every quarter, after the 20th day of publication month at 08:30 EST (New York).Existing home salesThe number of sold houses built earlier.Shows the number of homes sold in the secondary market for the year. Can give an idea of ​​the optimism of consumers (consumer confidence) and their ability to buy expensive things. These findings, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, increasing the volume of construction is improving well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. Increase in its value has a positive impact on the currency. Its value is published each month after the 20th day at 10:00 EST (New York).Export pricesPrices for export.The index reflects changes in export prices for the month. Is an indicator of inflation. It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates increase the value of the index leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published each month around the 10th to 08:30 EST (New York) in conjunction with an indicator "Import prices".Factory ordersProduction orders.Factory orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and short-term use. The goods are nondurable food, clothing, light industry goods and products, designed for operation with durable goods. For durable goods, those goods with a lifetime of more than three years. These include cars, furniture, etc. The indicator "Production Orders" has a limited impact on the market. Particular attention is paid to trends in its development. The growth of the index is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published in the first days of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).Federal budgetThe state budget.Characterizes the relationship between income and expenditure of the state. If you exceed the level of state revenues over expenditures generated a surplus. If you exceed the level of state spending on its income produced a negative balance (deficit). This index has a negligible impact on the market. Usually it is used for long-term economic analysis. Budget deficit seen in the context of other indicators: the index of industrial prices (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3), etc. Its value is published around the 20th of each month at 14:00 EST (New York).GDP - Gross domestic productGross domestic product (GDP).Is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be summarized as follows: GDP = C + I + S + E - M, where C - consumption, I - investment, S - public expenditure, E - exports, M - imports. GDP is expressed as an index relative to the previous period, and in terms of absolute value sum of the prices of manufactured goods and services. It has a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase in the national currency.GDP advanceGross domestic product (GDP) - preliminary value.This indicator is the first step of the three levels of GDP data, which are published every quarter. They go as follows: advance - provisional (revised) - final. Its value is published every quarter, after the 20th day of publication month at 08:30 EST (New York).GDP deflatorGDP deflator.This ratio is the current value of GDP to its base value. Reflects the magnitude of the inflationary component in the value of GDP. Published simultaneously with GDP. It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates increase its value leads to an increase in the dollar.GDP finalGross domestic product (GDP) - the final value.This update "of the revised value of" GDP (provisional). Most often the differences between them are minimal. Therefore these figures do not surprise the market. Its value is published in the next month after the publication of "GDP provisional" after the 20th day at 08:30 EST (New York).GDP provisional (revised)Gross domestic product (GDP) - the revised value.This update (revised) "prior value" of GDP (advance). Published next month after the publication of "GDP advance" after the 20th day of a 08:30 EST (New York).Help-wanted indexThe index number of required workers.Characterizes the volume of adverts published in newspapers on hiring employees. 1987 was laid over the base, then its value was "100". With his analysis of the use of "moving averages" (moving average). If the moving average shows a trend change in the index for several months, it could be a sign of the changing situation on the labor market. Also, the index can give an idea about a possible change in economic conditions in different regions of the country. Almost no effect on the market. Its influence is limited to what is taken into account only a limited number of major regional newspapers. Its value is published, usually on the last Thursday of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).Housing startsConstruction of new homes.The indicator shows the number of new homes, whose construction has already begun. He is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates in the country, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These findings, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, increasing the volume of construction is improving well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. Increase in its value has a positive impact on the currency. Its value is published in the third week of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) in conjunction with an indicator "Building permits".Humphrey-Hawkins testimonyThis is the speech of the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve) (now it's Alan Greenspan) to the two banking committees of the U.S. Congress.This performance takes place twice a year: winter and summer. The two houses of Congress (The Senate and House) are swapped about someone whose committee has once again listen to the report first. The report sheds light on new plans and goals of the Federal Reserve in conducting monetary policy. Behind him closely watched all the market players and trying to find a hint of the possible actions of the Fed in the future change in the basic interest rates. Speech has a significant impact on the market. This is one of the most important and significant events for the financial market.