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Thursday, 18 August 2011

Why move rates

Why move rates

Exports and imports
The higher prices and production costs in the country compared to overseas, the more increased imports compared to exports. Therefore, a high level of domestic prices and lower prices abroad usually means higher prices for foreign currency. This factor, which in the 20s of the XX century was considered the most important is called "purchasing power parity" exchange rates. Under the concept of purchasing power parity exchange rates change in the relationship between the two countries ceteris paribus proportion to the ratio between domestic prices and prices abroad.
The stronger the desire for foreign goods and services overseas use, the higher the price has to offer for foreign currency. With the growth of national income and increases demand for imported goods. This causes a tendency to reduce the cost of the national currency. On the other hand, a high national income abroad reduces the price of foreign currency. All of this is due to the "propensity to import of the country": the growth of national income leads to increased imports of almost the same extent that increased domestic consumption.
Movement of capital
If investors are seeking more foreign debt obligations, bonds, shares, bank deposits or cash, they thus bid up the price of foreign currency. In contrast, payments to other countries in a particular state contributed to the increasing rate of its currency.This factor, which determines the movement of capital, which is closely linked to currency speculation. If it was only on the export of goods or payments on current account, the rate of foreign currency could have been dull and fluctuated only slightly. However, when the euro falls from 1.04 to 0.97 dollars per euro, many are beginning to fear that it will fall even more. So they try to get rid of the euro. The increase in sales the single European currency and reducing the demand for it from short-term speculative capital flows has further reduced its rate.
Thus, small fluctuations in the exchange rate is often exacerbated by movement spontaneously "hot money" that move from one country to another for any rumor of impending problems, change of political direction or currency fluctuations. When this "capital flight" begins in a large scale and in any one direction, it can lead to sharp movements in exchange rates and even the financial crisisWhat causes the movement of the exchange rate
Output data and the expectation of the release of data
On the concept of "data" may include the following events: exit (publication) economic indicators of the host of traded currencies, the reported changes in interest rates in these countries, reviews the state of economy and other events which have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market (for example, the end of the financial in Japan on March 31, Minister of Finance submission to Parliament of the draft state budget, etc.).
Waiting for an event and the onset of this event are strong drivers of currency movements. Hard to say, that has a stronger impact on the market, the event itself, or its expectation, but we can say with certainty that the output of major data can lead to significant and prolonged movements in exchange rates. These are important data: Nonfarm payrolls, GDP, Industrial production, CPI, PPI, and others.
Date and time when a particular indicator is known in advance. There are so-called calendar of economic indicators and the most important events in the life of the individual states (with specific dates, or approximate time of their release). These events prepared the market. Emerging expectations and forecasts of the value of an indicator can go and how it can be interpreted.
Output data can lead to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. Depending on how market participants apostrophe and interprets a particular indicator, the rate can go as one and the other side. This movement of course can lead to a strengthening of an existing trend, its correction or the beginning of a new trend. Or that the outcome depends on several factors: the market situation, economic condition of the host currencies considered, preliminary expectations and attitudes, and finally, the value of a specific indicator.
For example, after a series of increasing values ​​of the indicators: GDP, Nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PPI in the market can come talk about a possible increase in U.S. interest rates. Even if this change happens within a few months now actively beginning to buy U.S. dollars against other currencies. Thus begins up-trend in U.S. dollars - a steady strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. After the release of reports on changes in rates could begin the correction in this movement.
With the release of certain data (or any information affecting the market) are the following proverb: "Sell the exit of good data" (sell good news), and "buy on rumor, sell on fact" (buy on rumor, sell on fact .) These sayings are suitable to situations where the market expects the occurrence of any event.
Even before the release of information about this event is a movement rate in a certain direction (towards the interpretation of future events), ie market "is laid." So often after the data (if the information meets expectations) is moving in the opposite direction. This is due to the fact that expectations were open position and when there was something waiting for - is the closure of these positions. There is a so-called "profit taking" (the removal of profits). Situations where there are similar events, are characterized by the expression "priced in" (ie, the event occurs already built into the price - which means a rate of one currency against another).
Activity Funds
The first place for its effect on long-term trends in the movement of currency exchange rates hold funds (hedge, investment, insurance, pension). One of the directions of their activities - is investing in certain currencies. With huge amounts of money they can make the course a long time to move in a certain direction. Management of the funds of funds involved in fund managers (fund managers). They are true professionals.
Depending on the operating principles they can open the long-term, medium-and short-term positions. Fund managers make decisions based on thorough analysis of financial markets. They are armed with various types of analysis: fundamental, technical, computer, psychology, analysis of related markets. Fund managers on the basis of the information being processed are trying to predict the consequences of certain events in time to open a position in the right direction. Thus, one of the objectives of their activities is a game ahead of the curve.
Managers are trying to present a picture of the world currency market as a whole (so to speak from the height of its flight) and when the picture is clear, there is a selection of tools for work and direction of trade. Of course, none of the types of analysis can not give perfect results. However, using an elaborate (and perfection) trading system, and having plenty of money, funds are able to start, strengthen and adjust the stronger the trend.
The activities of exporters and importers
Exporters and importers are using the foreign exchange market (market users) in pure form. In a continued interest in exporting to sell foreign currency, while importers - buy it. If established firms engaged in export-import operations, there are analytic divisions that specialize in forecasting the exchange rate to more or less profitable to sell or buy foreign currency.
A significant influence of exporters and importers to market is observed in the Japanese market the dollar against the yen. If the market is not observed strong trends, the exporters are not allowed to rate up high, and importers - deep down. Thus, they are able to hold course for a while in a certain range of levels (create a "range trading"). From time to time in market research reports dollars against the yen indicate possible levels of market access for exports (resistance level) and importers (support level).
For exporters and importers is also important to track trends in terms of hedging currency risks. With the opening of a position opposite to the future operation is to minimize this type of risk (hedging currency risks).
The impact of exporters and importers to market is short-term and not the cause of global trends, because the volume of foreign trade transactions are insignificant compared with the total transactions in the foreign exchange market. Most often, their activities create market reversals (correction), because when you reach certain levels it becomes profitable to buy or sell foreign currency.
Quotes from politicians
Statements that could affect the movement of exchange rates, appear in various reports, summits, meetings, press conferences, etc. (Eg meetings of the leaders of the Group of Seven, or a press conference after a discussion of interest rates).
The journalists of news agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg and others) closely watching such speeches and real-time insert statements to the hottest news columns of their agencies (the so-called "hot lines" or "hot news"). By the force of impact on the market these statements can be compared to economic indicators.Most often, the date and time of a speech known. These events prepared the market, so shortly before the onset of their predictions appear or rumors about what can be said and how it can be interpreted. However, there are times when it happens suddenly on the market. Then the market could start strong movements in exchange rates that are not always predictable.
So, after a sensational reports on the resignation of German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine (Oskar Lafontaine), the European single currency (the euro) against the U.S. dollar has risen nearly 400 points in just two hours.If any statements are a long-term effects (for example, the possibility of changes in interest rates, the principles of forming the state budget, etc.), this movement could turn into long-term trends.
For example, two times a year (winter and summer), all markets are closely watching the performances of the head of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan in front of the two banking committees of Congress, USA (Humphrey Hawkins testimony). During the presentations, market participants are attempting to find his words at least a small hint on the future direction of changes in interest rates in the United States. Depending on how market participants apostrophe and interprets the words of Greenspan, may be established or that the trend in U.S. dollars.
In relation to the political leaders there such a thing as a "charmed the course." This means that at some point in time when the currency reaches levels that are unfavorable for a particular state, they begin to say that, in their opinion, the course is not going on that they would not allow further movement is possible that intervention, and so n. And because these people trusted (they already have the established authority and they have a mandate), then their words are beginning to have a direct impact on the market.
This occurs most often after a strong and long-term trend in one direction. Therefore, after such statements traders can decide "not to tempt fate" and begin "Square" (closing existing positions). This, in turn, leads to a correction of this trend.When the course is truly at a critical level, the following statements may be followed by interventions by central banks. And this is a very strong impact on the market event - the course can take more than one hundred points in the direction of intervention in a short time (sometimes minutes). In addition, the intervention may cause market participants wary of open positions in the old direction. This, in turn, can lead to avalanche movement of the exchange rate.
Below are the names of public figures who are most often found in the headers of news agencies and whose opinion is important for the market.U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers (Treasury Secretary Laurence Summers), president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William MakDana (Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough).
Germany Finance Minister Hans Aichele (Finance Minister Hans Eichel), Bundesbank President Ernst Velteke (Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke), former president of the Bundesbank, Hans Titmeyer (Bundesbank Ex-President Hans Tietmeyer), the Bundesbank's chief economist Hermann Remsperger (Bundesbank chief economist Hermann Remsperger .)European Union: European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg (ECB President Wim Duisenberg), a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank Tomasso Padoa-Shioppa (ECB Executive Board member Tomasso Padoa-Schioppa), the chief economist of the European Central Bank Otmar Issing (ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing ), the Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Gerrit Tsalm (Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm).
Japan: University Professor Keith, a former deputy finance minister, "Mr. Yen" Sakakibara Eisuke (Keito University professor, Ex-Vice Finance Minister, "Mr Yen" Eisuke Sakakibara), Kiichi Miyazawa Minister of Finance (Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa), head of the Agency for Economic Planning Taichi Sakai (Economic Planning Agency Minister Taichi Sakaiya), governor of the Bank of Japan Masaru Hayami (Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami), head of the International Department of the Ministry of Finance Zemba Mizoguchi (The head of the international bureau at Japan's Finance Ministry Zembei Mizoguchi).UK: Gordon Brown (Chancellor of Exchequer Gordon Brown), governor of the Bank of England Eddie George (Bank of England Governor Eddie George), a member of the Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England Governor Mervyn King (Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mervyn King), a member of the Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England Uilem Buiter (Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Willem Buiter), a member of the Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England, John Vickers (Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member John Vickers).
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank Chairman Hans Meyer (Swiss National Bank Chairman Hans Meyer), chief economist at National Bank of Switzerland Georg Rih (SNB Chief Economist Georg Rich), a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank Bruno Gehrig (SNB Governing Board member Bruno Gehrig).France: Laurent Fabius Minister of Finance (Finance Minister Laurent Fabius), governor of the Bank of France Jean-Claude Trichet (Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet).
The activities of central banks
Its influence on the currency market the state exercises over the central banks. If the central bank is absolutely certain state does not intervene in foreign exchange operations by buying and selling foreign currency on the foreign exchange market, the domestic currency is in "free float". In practice this happens extremely rarely. Countries with floating exchange rates, from time to time try to influence its exchange rate through foreign exchange transactions. This state of the currency is called a "dirty float".In order to promote production and consumption growth states must engage in exchange rate management. Is commonly used direct and indirect regulation. Indirectly through the regulation of money in circulation, inflation, etc. Direct include discount policy and foreign exchange intervention in foreign exchange markets.
Foreign exchange interventions are associated with a sudden outburst or a sudden seizure of an equally large amounts of currency from the international market. Exit the central bank's foreign exchange market is through commercial banks. As the amount is very large (billions of dollars), the foreign exchange interventions lead to significant movements in exchange rates.For example, in 1998 the central bank of Japan (Bank of Japan) had several foreign exchange intervention, aimed at preventing further podeshevleniya yen against the U.S. dollar. On the market has been thrown out several billion dollars, which led to a significant drop in the dollar against the yen.
The central banks of different countries can also implement and joint intervention in currency markets. During one of the interventions in the market, the dollar against the yen in 1998, it involved the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve).If at a certain stage of economic development is necessary to devalue (depreciate) the national currency, the government increases the supply of its currency in the international market. This is often done at the expense of an additional issue of banknotes. If you want to raise the price of monetary unit, the central bank buys the foreign exchange market, its own currency.

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